Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact crisis management policies. With aim, we exploit a natural experiment during COVID-19 pandemic in France evaluate effect lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, country has been divided two areas, red and green, subject ‘hard’ ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure behaviour, before after policy, rely 2020 French municipal elections: first round took place introduction restrictions, while second was delayed end lockdown. We estimate spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing outcomes around border green areas both between rounds. main results suggest that regulations significantly affected outcomes. First, localities under harder incumbent’s vote share higher. Second, voter turnout larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These policy mobilizes citizens leads them rally incumbent politicians.